AJAX Research

Research-Driven
Investment Intelligence

Institutional-quality equity analysis, quantitative modeling, and market commentary. Built for serious investors.

Market OverviewLive — 08:17 PM ET
SPX
7,688.62+1.58%
NDX
28,437.17+0.91%
DJI
53,356.12+3.03%
VIX
16.61-20.26%
US3M
4.03%+0.0 bps
US10Y
4.89%-5.8 bps
US30Y
5.28%-4.2 bps
GC
4,105.00+0.79%
CL
87.92-0.23%
META——AAPL——GOOG——NVDA——SPX——VIX——BTC——GOLD——OIL——US10Y——META——AAPL——GOOG——NVDA——SPX——VIX——BTC——GOLD——OIL——US10Y——

0

Reports Published

0

Asset Classes

YTD Performance

Jan 1 – Present · Model Portfolio

Portfolio objective: risk-adjusted returns uncorrelated to broad market beta.

AJAX
SPX
NDX

Market Snapshot

SPX

7,688.62

+1.58%

NDX

28,437.17

+0.91%

DJI

53,356.12

+3.03%

RUT

2,856.95

+1.58%

DXY

101.37

-0.49%

WTI Crude

$87.92

-0.23%

Gold

$4105.00

+0.79%

3M Yield

4.03%

10Y Yield

4.89%

VIX

16.61

-20.26%

Live · refreshes every 15s

Latest Coverage

Research Reports

Jul 28, 2026
Position Sizing

Kelly Criterion Position Sizing

This paper derives credit-spread position sizing for AJAX's options-selling book from first principles, showing that the Kelly criterion is not an assumed utility preference but a direct consequence of how wealth compounds under repeated betting provable via the Strong Law of Large Numbers alone. It extends the classical binary-bet Kelly formula to the continuous, piecewise-linear payoff of a vertical credit spread, and shows that a defensible position size requires a genuine subjective edge (the empirically documented variance risk premium) rather than the market's own risk-neutral pricing.

RTXFeb 9, 2026
DefenseNEUTRAL

RTX Corporation: Positioned for a Multi-Year Defense Re-Rating, but Valuation Reflects the Outlook

RTX's earnings are structurally supported by missile defense demand, sustainment-heavy procurement programs, and a recovering commercial aerospace aftermarket, providing multi-year revenue visibility. However, current valuation already reflects normalized earnings and backlog visibility, leaving forward returns dependent on operational execution and sustained geopolitical defense spending rather than multiple expansion.

PT: $206.00
XAU/USDJan 30, 2026
CommoditiesOVERWEIGHT

Gold (XAU/USD): A Structural Reserve Asset in an Era of Fiscal Dominance and Geopolitical Fragmentation

AJAX Research maintains a Strategic Overweight on gold as elevated sovereign debt, persistent fiscal imbalances, sustained central bank accumulation exceeding 1,000 tonnes annually, and rising geopolitical fragmentation have transformed gold from a cyclical hedge into a structural reserve asset. Over the past five years, gold has outperformed the S&P 500 by approximately 28.5% on a total return basis, reinforcing its capacity to preserve real value through macroeconomic stress.

View all reports →

Commentary

Recent News

Nov 4, 2026

ARGUS Brief

ARGUS Brief: Democrats Sweep Reshapes Iran, Trade, Rate Outlook — Pre-Market

Democrats' decisive midterm victory signals a sharp pivot from Trump-era Iran confrontation and trade war escalation, rattling energy markets and boosting risk assets. The geopolitical de-escalation narrative is offsetting recession concerns, driving equity rallies, dollar weakness, and gold appreciation. However, elevated tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing Iranian military posturing create lingering supply-chain and commodity volatility.

Nov 3, 2026

ARGUS Brief

ARGUS Brief: Election Day Geopolitics Trump Markets; Energy Sector Gains — Post-Market

Tuesday, November 3, 2026 saw U.S. midterm elections dominate trading sentiment amid conflicting geopolitical signals from the Trump administration on Iran and Israel aid. Energy equities outperformed on refinery consolidation and margin expansion, while cybersecurity concerns and intelligence fracturing added volatility to macro positioning ahead of results.

Nov 3, 2026

ARGUS Brief

ARGUS Brief: Iran Strikes Roil Energy, US Election Day Looms — Pre-Market

US defensive strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island triggered immediate oil volatility and geopolitical risk repricing, while prediction markets show Democrats favored for Senate control heading into today's midterm elections. Earnings season remains active with Apple reporting post-bell, creating dual catalysts for equity volatility.

Nov 2, 2026

ARGUS Brief

ARGUS Brief: Election Clarity and Mega-Cap Earnings Dominate — Post-Market

With US midterms hours away, prediction markets signal a Democratic Senate takeover (74% probability), setting the stage for potential policy shifts. Meanwhile, mega-cap tech earnings—Apple and Palantir reporting tonight—command options market attention amid elevated vol expectations. Geopolitical tensions (Iran-Saudi negotiations, Houthi escalation) and a major consumer staples M&A close (Kimberly-Clark/Kenvue) complete a complex macro backdrop.

Nov 2, 2026

ARGUS Brief

ARGUS Brief: Oil Plunges on Iran Deal Hopes, Midterm Uncertainty — Pre-Market

Oil prices collapsed over 4% on optimism around US-Iran nuclear negotiations, while gold rebounded from year-lows as investors price in electoral uncertainty ahead of midterm voting. Geopolitical de-escalation is offsetting hawkish energy supply rhetoric, creating a risk-off tilt in commodities despite persistent economic headwinds in key markets.

About AJAX Research

Institutional Analysis, Independent Voice

AJAX Research applies the analytical frameworks of top-tier investment institutions to deliver equity research that is both rigorous and actionable. Built by investors, for investors.

01

Fundamental Research

Bottom-up equity analysis grounded in financial modeling. DCF, comps, and scenario analysis for every coverage initiation.

02

Quantitative Rigor

Data-driven decision-making with statistical validation. Every thesis is stress-tested against historical evidence and market reality.

03

Independent Perspective

No investment banking conflicts. No sell-side pressure. Research driven solely by analytical merit and evidence.

04

Risk-Adjusted Thinking

Position sizing, drawdown analysis, and margin of safety are built into every recommendation. Risk management is never an afterthought.