AJAX Research

Research-Driven
Investment Intelligence

Institutional-quality equity analysis, quantitative modeling, and market commentary. Built for serious investors.

Market OverviewLive — 01:57 AM ET
SPX
7,650.50+0.17%
NDX
29,644.17+0.67%
DJI
51,682.64-0.18%
VIX
14.81-4.08%
US3M
3.98%+1.3 bps
US10Y
5.00%+5.1 bps
US30Y
5.33%+3.5 bps
GC
4,424.90+0.57%
CL
96.08-1.18%
META——AAPL——GOOG——NVDA——SPX——VIX——BTC——GOLD——OIL——US10Y——META——AAPL——GOOG——NVDA——SPX——VIX——BTC——GOLD——OIL——US10Y——

0

Reports Published

0

Sectors Covered

YTD Performance

Jan 1 – Present · Model Portfolio

Portfolio objective: risk-adjusted returns uncorrelated to broad market beta.

AJAX
SPX
NDX

Market Snapshot

SPX

7,650.50

+0.17%

NDX

29,644.17

+0.67%

DJI

51,682.64

-0.18%

RUT

2,860.40

-0.50%

DXY

100.22

0.00%

WTI Crude

$96.08

-1.18%

Gold

$4424.90

+0.57%

3M Yield

3.98%

10Y Yield

5.00%

VIX

14.81

-4.08%

Live · refreshes every 15s

Latest Coverage

Research Reports

Jul 28, 2026
Position Sizing

Kelly Criterion Position Sizing

This paper derives credit-spread position sizing for AJAX's options-selling book from first principles, showing that the Kelly criterion is not an assumed utility preference but a direct consequence of how wealth compounds under repeated betting provable via the Strong Law of Large Numbers alone. It extends the classical binary-bet Kelly formula to the continuous, piecewise-linear payoff of a vertical credit spread, and shows that a defensible position size requires a genuine subjective edge (the empirically documented variance risk premium) rather than the market's own risk-neutral pricing.

RTXFeb 9, 2026
DefenseNEUTRAL

RTX Corporation: Positioned for a Multi-Year Defense Re-Rating, but Valuation Reflects the Outlook

RTX's earnings are structurally supported by missile defense demand, sustainment-heavy procurement programs, and a recovering commercial aerospace aftermarket, providing multi-year revenue visibility. However, current valuation already reflects normalized earnings and backlog visibility, leaving forward returns dependent on operational execution and sustained geopolitical defense spending rather than multiple expansion.

PT: $206.00
XAU/USDJan 30, 2026
CommoditiesOVERWEIGHT

Gold (XAU/USD): A Structural Reserve Asset in an Era of Fiscal Dominance and Geopolitical Fragmentation

AJAX Research maintains a Strategic Overweight on gold as elevated sovereign debt, persistent fiscal imbalances, sustained central bank accumulation exceeding 1,000 tonnes annually, and rising geopolitical fragmentation have transformed gold from a cyclical hedge into a structural reserve asset. Over the past five years, gold has outperformed the S&P 500 by approximately 28.5% on a total return basis, reinforcing its capacity to preserve real value through macroeconomic stress.

View all reports →

Commentary

Recent News

Sep 18, 2026

ARGUS Brief

ARGUS Brief: Iran War Escalation, Consumer Weakness Signal Macro Headwinds — Post-Market

Friday's market action reflects growing geopolitical risk premium from Iran conflict intensification and emerging consumer stress across discretionary sectors. Rising casualty reports and Middle East instability are colliding with weakening QSR fundamentals and airline margin pressures, forcing a reassessment of near-term growth and inflation dynamics.

Sep 18, 2026

ARGUS Brief

ARGUS Brief: Iran Conflict Fuels Energy, Shipping, Geopolitical Risk — Pre-Market

The ongoing Iran war is driving crude and bunker fuel costs higher, threatening shipping rates and corporate supply chains while creating geopolitical uncertainty at the UN. China is capitalizing with record fuel exports, while regional players signal caution on military involvement. Energy markets lack a clear endgame, and container shipping could test record highs as input costs surge.

Sep 17, 2026

ARGUS Brief

ARGUS Brief: Iran Conflict Reshapes Energy & Supply Chains — Post-Market

The escalating US-Iran conflict is creating immediate commodity and logistical dislocations across energy, shipping, and defense sectors. Container rates face record pressure, oil markets lack a clear resolution pathway, and geopolitical risk is reshaping capital allocation toward defense contractors and maritime assets. Meanwhile, Trump-Xi talks next week inject additional uncertainty into trade and Taiwan policy.

Sep 17, 2026

ARGUS Brief

ARGUS Brief: Fed Hikes, Middle East Tensions Escalate, BoE Diverges — Pre-Market

The Fed delivered its first rate hike in 3 years, signaling persistent inflation concerns and a potential policy pivot. Simultaneously, Middle East tensions are intensifying with US-Iran hostilities, Houthi disruptions to maritime commerce, and diplomatic backchannels emerging. The Bank of England is expected to hold steady despite 3.1% inflation, creating a rare transatlantic policy divergence that will drive currency and rate markets today.

Sep 16, 2026

ARGUS Brief

ARGUS Brief: Fed Hikes First Time in 3 Years; Mideast Tensions Escalate — Post-Market

The Federal Reserve delivered its first rate hike in three years on Wednesday, September 16, 2026, marking a significant policy shift amid persistent inflation concerns. Simultaneously, escalating Middle East tensions—including Houthi military advances, US-Iran diplomatic engagement, and regional sanctions tightening—created cross-currents of geopolitical risk that pressured energy markets and risk sentiment heading into the close.

About AJAX Research

Institutional Analysis, Independent Voice

AJAX Research applies the analytical frameworks of top-tier investment institutions to deliver equity research that is both rigorous and actionable. Built by investors, for investors.

01

Fundamental Research

Bottom-up equity analysis grounded in financial modeling. DCF, comps, and scenario analysis for every coverage initiation.

02

Quantitative Rigor

Data-driven decision-making with statistical validation. Every thesis is stress-tested against historical evidence and market reality.

03

Independent Perspective

No investment banking conflicts. No sell-side pressure. Research driven solely by analytical merit and evidence.

04

Risk-Adjusted Thinking

Position sizing, drawdown analysis, and margin of safety are built into every recommendation. Risk management is never an afterthought.